875
ACUS01 KWNS 181605
SWODY1
SPC AC 181603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION....
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
..UPPER OH VALLEY
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OH, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, CAM GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING VERY FEW
ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT
RISK FOR THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS, BUT
WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
..TX
ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS
SCENARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY UPPER JET MOVES INTO AR AND AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND EXTEND IT INTO
PARTS OF AR/LA.
..HART/CHALMERS.. 04/18/2026
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