829
FNUS21 KWNS 181643
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS...
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A DRY, POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE REGIME HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 15-20 F RANGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
SOUTHWESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD WHERE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15% BY THIS AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH
RANGING FROM 25-30% BY MID AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 MPH (LOCALLY 15 MPH) AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL
SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH A
LIMITED DRY THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.0" AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER, SOME LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RECEPTIVE
FUELSCAPE.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/18/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0118 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AS TEMPORARY UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A POST-FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL
POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
AND RH OF 15-25 PERCENT OVER DRY FUELS WILL POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. A CONFINED REGION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING DAYTIME RH TO REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT WITHIN THIS REGION, STRONG WINDS ATOP RECENTLY RECEPTIVE
FUELS AND EXPECTED 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT COUPLED
WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND
RESULTANT LOW RH WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT PEAK HEATING,
WIDESPREAD RH OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION (LESS THAN 0.25")
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT
PLATEAU, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. GIVEN A
CONTINUOUS ENVIRONMENT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR INCREASED SPREAD
POTENTIAL OF ANY EXISTING AND NEW IGNITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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