578
ACUS03 KWNS 181916
SWODY3
SPC AC 181915
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
..DISCUSSION
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY, WHILE THE TAIL END OF A RELATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN FL, DIURNAL HEATING AMID A MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
WEAK BUOYANCY AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK.
FARTHER WEST, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTH
TX WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF ISOLATED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL TX LATE IN THE PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY LOW. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGES
ON THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
..WEINMAN.. 04/18/2026
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