021
FNUS21 KWNS 191601
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
..MORNING UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD VALUES OF
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RH OWING TO POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE DEEPER
MIXING WITH RH DROPPING TO 5-15 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTS OF UP TO 35
MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAINTAINING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHEAST, A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE TRANSPARENT WITH SPORADIC AREAS OF
PARTIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A VERY
DRY AIRMASS UP TO 4-6 KM, WITH 30-45 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AREAS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
DEEPER MIXING, CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30
MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES,
FURTHER EXACERBATING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT INTO DAY 2/MONDAY. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 04/19/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH FIRE WEATHER REGIMES
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS)
OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN TX INTO WESTERN KS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 MPH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY RETURN FLOW REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COUPLED WITH VERY LOW BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND RH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH APPEAR LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX,
THE FUEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST STATES
06 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT, LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS LOW PROBABILITY FOR WETTING RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO CENTRAL GA AND SC, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE ERC VALUES WELL ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD 15-25% RH MINIMUMS. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS WINDS INCREASE
INTO THE 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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