164
ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ON THE WEST COAST, A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL INTO PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN
PLACE. VERY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.
..SOUTH FLORIDA
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA GIVEN THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLING DURING THE DAY, PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A LARGE DOWN-PENINSULAR COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DROP DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME. THIS PATTERN, COUPLED WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD
KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW.
..TRANS-PECOS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS
WITH MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS VICINITY, A STORM OR
TWO COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE TERRAIN. A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTLE PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER STORM. GIVEN HOW ISOLATED THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE AS WELL AS ITS DEPENDENCY ON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN, CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A SCENARIO IS QUITE LOW.
FARTHER EAST, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH NORTHERN EXTENT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AS WILL MUCAPE (LESS THAN 750
J/KG). SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..WENDT.. 04/19/2026
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