309
ACUS03 KWNS 191937
SWODY3
SPC AC 191936
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
ASHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE, CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIVE MOISTURE RETURN INTO A
STALLED/REMNANT COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY.
..LOWER GREAT LAKES
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
EARLY/MID EVENING, HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT
(PERHAPS NEAR -20 C AT 500 MB), BUT MOISTURE COULD BE QUITE LIMITED
(POTENTIALLY IN THE 40S F). THE NAM IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. SHOULD
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN OCCUR, SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS PRECEDING THIS
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST ON PRECEDING DAYS
WILL POTENTIALLY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
..CENTRAL VALLEY CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
VALLEY. WHILE DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, POCKETS OF
HEATING COULD LEAD TO MODEST MLCAPE VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL TEXAS
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY COULD PROMOTE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER, STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
DAY.
..WENDT.. 04/19/2026
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