242
FNUS21 KWNS 201554
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VALID 201700Z - 211200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RH VALUES OF 10-30 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OWING TO POOR OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ALSO EXPERIENCED POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, WITH CURRENT RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY
NEW IGNITIONS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND RH DECREASES ATOP EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY FUELS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 04/20/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0128 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE
EAST COAST AND A SECOND, CLOSED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LEE TROUGH WILL YIELD A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN BOTH OF THESE
REGIMES. RH MINIMUMS OF 10-15% (LOCALLY LOWER) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING, SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL DEPRESS MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN AN
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST, THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
RETURNING MOISTURE MAY LIMIT RH REDUCTIONS TO SOME DEGREE, BUT RH
MINIMUMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO 15-25% SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
TO 30-35 MPH.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE FUELS REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (ERCS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE) AMID CONTINUING DROUGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/GEORGIA. FARTHER NORTH, MODEST WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST BEHIND A DRY, SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MINIMUM RH OF 20-30% (LOCALLY LOWER)
EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN ARIZONA
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN MODEST UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, A
COMBINATION OF LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT, DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION, AND A WEAK, SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SLOW STORM MOTIONS (AROUND 10 KTS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
POCKETS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION, BUT PWAT VALUES OF 0.4-0.7" ATOP A
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHILE
LARGELY LIMITING PRECIPITATION. WITH REGIONAL ERCS NEAR THE 75TH TO
80TH PERCENTILE, LIGHTNING IGNITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE. WHILE
PREVAILING FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
CREATE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH ANY NEW IGNITIONS.
..PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL TO 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE SHOULD
FORECAST CLOUD COVER CLEAR MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION OF WIND/RH MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN POCKETS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ALONG WITH
MARGINAL FUEL RECEPTIVENESS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER
PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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