540
ACUS01 KWNS 220555
SWODY1
SPC AC 220554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OHIO...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND OHIO.
..HIGH PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS TODAY, HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS, AS A RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE, A LEE TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH,
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE TO THE EAST OF A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ALONG THE DRYLINE,
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40
KNOT RANGE BY EARLY EVENING. THIS, COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES IN THE 8.5 TO 9 C/KM RANGE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, THE LIFT
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. IF A STORM CAN INITIATE,
THEN A SUPERCELL COULD DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
..NORTHEAST INDIANA/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
AS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. MODEL FORECASTS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO HAVE MLCAPE IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 30 KNOTS, WHICH COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS IN AREAS THAT
DESTABILIZE THE MOST.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 04/22/2026
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