820
FNUS21 KWNS 221550
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
..MORNING UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE GOOD
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS,
WIDESPREAD SURFACE RH IS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND
DEEPER MIXING INTO A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT ENSUES. ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MT, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT POOR OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD 15-25 PERCENT RH
THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SPOTTY CLOUDS BUILD IN THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN MT,
STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND A DEEPENING DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH ATOP VERY DRY FUELS. A 700 MB 50-70 KT
JET WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SD
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NE PANHANDLE WITH RH ONLY INCREASING TO 30-50
PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 04/22/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1256 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AN INCIPIENT LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN MT, WHILE
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT A EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
..SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
A BROAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PLAINS CORRIDOR. THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND RELATED JET ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING AMID DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH A MORE
EXPANSIVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 MPH
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WY AND SOUTHEASTERN MT, MORE COINCIDENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES YIELD SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ATOP VERY
DRY AND STILL DORMANT FUELS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS REGION WITH A LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT, INCLUDING 30+ MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE.
..NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON
ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE SANDHILLS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SD. DELAYED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 10-15%
BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY
RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIAL INFLUX OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
...FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WESTERN NEBRASKA, FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KS...
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM
SOUTHWESTERN SD ALMOST TO THE OK PANHANDLE. THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50"-0.70" JUST
EAST OF THE DRY LINE SUPPORTING ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AS
THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
..PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF MID ATLANTIC
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PIEDMONT TODAY WHERE FUELS REMAIN CRITICALLY
DRY. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ALONG WITH RH FALLING INTO THE 20-25%
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
SOUTHERN VA, MUCH OF NC AND NORTHERN SC. AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVE
WITHIN BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST 850 MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN
WESTERN NC, RESULTING IN RH OF AROUND 15% IN SOME AREAS BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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