997
ACUS11 KWNS 221951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221951
NEZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221951Z - 222145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND SOME
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1945 UTC, VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
DRYLINE/SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
(NE,SD, CO, INTO WESTERN KS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS). STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS, ALONG WITH WEAK ASCENT
FROM INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSECTING THE ROCKIES HAS
DESTABILIZED THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. CONTINUED HEATING
AND ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES (8-9 C KM) AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONGER/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH
MULTICELLS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS.
HIGH LCLS AROUND 3 KM, OWING TO THE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
(GENERALLY 30S-40S F DEWPOINTS) WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITHIN ESTABLISHED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WITH
SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME HAIL IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE OWING TO COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
BUOYANCY IS GREATER. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS,
LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WERE SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS MORE ROBUST. HOWEVER,
STRONG HEATING AND THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE SEVERE RISK EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED, A WW CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 04/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
CYS...
LAT...LON 37790236 40310248 42850350 43390338 43650220 43450112
43090076 41290003 39170047 37100084 36110151 35710209
36250228 36810231 37790236
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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