557
FNUS21 KWNS 230556
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SURFACE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MOST ACUTE FIRE WEATHER RISKS ARE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SPECIFICALLY BEHIND AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, INTENSE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS, THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHWEST OK. GIVEN THAT
THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE
MORNING, MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LACKLUSTER ACROSS EASTERN NM AND
THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH ONLY MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
FACILITATING ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING, EXPECT RHS DOWN TO 10% OR LESS,
WHILE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS REACH 20-25 MPH.
THE CRITICAL AREA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO
AND SOUTHWEST NE. AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE HIGHER
RHS MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE GAP-FLOW
CORRIDORS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND OTHER TERRAIN-INFLUENCED AREAS
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CO INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. IN THESE
LOCALIZED AREAS, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERLAP WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT RHS.
TO THE NORTH, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS (INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN CO, WESTERN
KS, AND MUCH OF NE) AS DRY, POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BENEFIT
FROM DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. THIS THREAT ALSO ENCOMPASSES PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MAY CAUSE
EXISTING WILDFIRES OR DORMANT LIGHTNING HOLDOVERS FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FLARE UP UNDER THE SUSTAINED DRY AND BREEZY REGIME. PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE ELEVATED WIND/RH CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY, BUT FUELS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRECEPTIVE.
..STEARNS/WILLIAMS.. 04/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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