814
ACUS11 KWNS 232205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-240000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...
VALID 232204Z - 240000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS WESTERN IA, A CONVECTIVE BAND IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND SURGE NOTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE - POSSIBLY THE EARLY STAGES OF A REAR INFLOW
JET. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BAND, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY
STEEP (AROUND 8 C/KM), WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INTENSIFICATION
OF THE LINE AND AN INCREASING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL IA
OVER THE COMING HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH, A SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH AN ESTABLISHED
MESOCYCLONE NOW APPARENT IN KOAX VELOCITY DATA. THIS CELL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES
(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO) AS IT MOVES
DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
CONTINUED CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT MAY LIMIT
THE TORNADO AND HAIL POTENTIAL BEYOND THE 23-00 UTC TIME FRAME.
LATER THIS EVENING, A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS CONVECTION
MIGRATES INTO A REGION WITH STRONGER CAPPING AND DIMINISHING
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND 00 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL, AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN, IA. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE COMING
HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE EASTERN BOUNDS OF WW 134.
..MOORE.. 04/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40269647 40879575 41849511 42619486 43189447 43439351
43449256 43319235 43029223 42599227 41989248 41429276
40959311 40489351 40269406 40159475 40169583 40129617
40269647
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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