102
FNUS21 KWNS 241626
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
NO CHANGES TO CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE MADE ACROSS CO. POOR
OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WERE NOTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, EVEN MORE
SO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM WHERE RH FAILED TO REACH
25%. A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CO AND SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE DRIEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING ACROSS EASTERN CO WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE LIKELY.
THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
EASTERN CO TODAY. LOCALLY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE (20 MPH
WEST WINDS AND RH OF 10-15%) IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS AND IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BROADER ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WAS INCORPORATED INTO PORTIONS OF THE GRAND
CANYON AND AZ STRIP AREAS. ABOVE AVERAGE ERC VALUES REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN AZ, WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASED FUEL RECEPTIVITY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 15-20% RANGE WILL BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/24/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
DAMPEN, GIVING WAY TO A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN A VERY BREEZY AND
PERSISTENTLY ARID ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE WORK
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AND THE NEIGHBORING HIGH PLAINS, WHERE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF POTENT WINDS
COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE, WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING IS FORECAST TO
DESCEND 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WHEN COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO 10-15% (AND LOCALLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS), THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS
ALREADY STRESSED BY A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY.
WHILE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY MAY OFFER SOME MINOR
MITIGATION OF THE THREAT BEFORE DUSK, THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
HEIGHTENED. CONSEQUENTLY, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCLUDE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH WESTERN
COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS, WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 20% WILL COINCIDE WITH ERCS REACHING THE 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE.
..CAROLINAS
AS THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS (REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH SUSTAINED) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT MEET
CRITERIA FOR ELEVATED CONDITIONS, CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN RHS FALLING BELOW 20% AMID ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER ALREADY DRY FUELS, KEEPING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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