793
ACUS11 KWNS 241821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241820
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241820Z - 242015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CERTAIN, BUT A SUPERCELL OR
TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS ARE INCREASING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE ARKLATEX. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW REACHING THE MID/UPPER
70S F IN THIS REGION WHICH MAY MEAN ROBUST DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION, HOWEVER. 35-40 KTS OF SHEAR AND
MLCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON A
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL (MOTION THAT WOULD MAXIMIZE WARM-SECTOR
RESIDENCE TIME) INTERACTING WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT CANNOT ROOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
TEND TO MOVE MORE EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE COOLER AIR. THE
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE LESS, BUT THE HAIL CONCERN WOULD REMAIN.
..WENDT.. 04/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32939426 33299495 34199562 34619555 34649495 34259436
33709410 33069403 32929405 32939426
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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