187
ACUS11 KWNS 250032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250032
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250032Z - 250230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MARGINAL HAIL THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MS. THIS BOUNDARY IS UNDERCUTTING A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WITH PERIODIC STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES.
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. FOR
EXAMPLE, 15-20 KT AT 850 MB ON AREA VWPS. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH STRONG
INSTABILITY ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS, THE UNDERCUTTING ACTION/LIFT OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, INCLUDING HAIL AT OR ABOVE 1.00" AND LOCALIZED
STRONG GUSTS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED AND LIKELY SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF
THESE CELLS, A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32359326 32759334 33569330 33609273 32239066 31838994
31628956 31158965 31038980 31079061 31219139 31659233
31939293 32359326
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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