206
FNUS21 KWNS 250602
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY (RH VALUES ALSO IN THE
TEENS) ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AZ, NM, AND SOUTHERN CO. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT DEEPENING OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS KS/OK WITH
A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE LOCALIZED/TRANSIENT CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX), MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
FUELS ACROSS THE GREATER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DRYING AFTER PRECEDING DAYS OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES WERE RECENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY SMALL TO MODERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS (10-100 ACRE FIRES) ACROSS NM AND CO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY, FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT THE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED
WIND/RH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
TX/SOUTHWEST OK, BUT FUEL RECEPTIVENESS GENERALLY DECLINES WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.
..MOORE.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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