471
ACUS11 KWNS 250753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250752
MSZ000-LAZ000-250915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 250752Z - 250915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG
OUTFLOW GUSTS AND SOME WIND DAMAGE, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A STORM CLUSTER IN WEST CENTRAL MS HAS DEVELOPED SOME
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AND A COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
60-90 MINUTES WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KT. THE STORMS ARE
MOVING ALONG THE BUOYANCY GRADIENT, SLIGHTLY INTO RAIN-COOLED AIR
FROM OTHER CONVECTION EARLIER TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH LINE-NORMAL
SHEAR TO HELP MAINTAIN UPRIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE GUST FRONT, AND
BUOYANCY IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS IN
QUESTION GIVEN RECENT RADAR VELOCITIES IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE, STORM
MOTION OF ABOUT 35 KT, AND A MEASURED 37 KT OUTFLOW GUST. ALL TOLD,
THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH, BUT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30828905 30679005 30939082 31149097 31389099 31499047
31798992 32338962 32258915 31958870 31518859 30828905
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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