894
FNUS21 KWNS 251601
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VALID 251700Z - 261200Z
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A COMPLEMENTARY
EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WILL PROMOTE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY STRUGGLED TO RISE ABOVE 25%
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS QUICKLY ERODING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALLOWING STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH BRIEF, LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 35 MPH
(PARTICULARLY IN THE ADJACENT LEE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN RANGES), MINIMUM
RH OF 10-15% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CO, FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ, MUCH OF NM
AND ADJACENT WESTERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/25/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0101 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY (RH VALUES ALSO IN THE
TEENS) ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AZ, NM, AND SOUTHERN CO. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT DEEPENING OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS KS/OK WITH
A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE LOCALIZED/TRANSIENT CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX), MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
FUELS ACROSS THE GREATER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DRYING AFTER PRECEDING DAYS OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES WERE RECENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY SMALL TO MODERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS (10-100 ACRE FIRES) ACROSS NM AND CO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY, FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT THE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED
WIND/RH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
TX/SOUTHWEST OK, BUT FUEL RECEPTIVENESS GENERALLY DECLINES WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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