649
ACUS11 KWNS 251857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251857
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251857Z - 252100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INDICATES TWO AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SEEMS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CUMULUS IS
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT AND DEEPENING OVER NORTHWESTERN OK, WHILE
SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS NEAR THESE AREAS HAS
ALLOWED FOR INCREASED HEATING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION TO
THE SOUTHWEST, AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL INSULATION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ~2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. JUST
UPSTREAM, A MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SPEED MAX IS ALSO NOSING INTO
THE AREA, AND WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY, VNX'S VWP IS INDICATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 45 KT.
ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5-8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL SIZES
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED.
..BARNES/GUYER.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 35749943 36049953 36259979 36250000 38899994 39929941
39949817 37239747 36439752 35339849 35749943
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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