316
ACUS11 KWNS 252155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252154
KSZ000-260000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143...
VALID 252154Z - 260000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE (2 INCH) HAIL IS LIKELY
INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A PAIR
OF SUPERCELLS TO THE WEST OF THE GREAT BEND, KS AREA, AND REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO DEPICT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MESOCYCLONES. THESE CELLS
ARE GENERALLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A PLUME OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S)
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
CLOSER TO 1500-2000 J/KG. CONSEQUENTLY, THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THESE
CELLS MIGRATE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN A NEARLY ZONAL WIND PROFILE
ALOFT WITH AMPLE SPEED SHEAR (NEARLY 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BWD SAMPLED
BY THE KICT VWP), SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ARE PROBABLE, AND WILL LIKELY
FEATURE SEVERE HAIL. BASED ON THE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT,
RECENT HAIL REPORTS (OBSERVED HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
UPWARDS FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES), AND SARS SOUNDING ANALOGS, HAIL MAY
BE AS LARGE AS 2 INCHES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY MIGRATE
TOWARDS THE PLUME OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..MOORE.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38159968 38429970 38629957 38759929 38839806 38689781
38509771 38209769 37839784 37559824 37439879 37569937
38159968
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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