230
ACUS11 KWNS 252211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252210
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252210Z - 260015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS AND AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING ARE NOTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE, MUCAPE
VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS, MO, AND AR
ARE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG, WHICH WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, 40-45 KNOT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION INTO DISCRETE AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS (ONE
SUCH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL IS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN AR). IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OR CAN BECOME
ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AT WHICH POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE GUSTS MAY INCREASE. REGARDLESS, LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND WILL WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES.
..MOORE/LEITMAN.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 35869456 36089499 36529582 36889649 37219709 37549728
37929710 38169670 38309602 38199520 37939447 37529380
37019344 36549321 36199322 35899344 35819379 35809419
35869456
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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