729
ACUS11 KWNS 252226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252225
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252225Z - 252330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW144.
DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LE FLORE
COUNTY IN OK AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
MAINTENANCE, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG. VAD PROFILES FROM
KSRX SHOWS AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOCK-WISE
CURVATURE. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, THE PRIMARY RISK WILL LIKELY BE FOR ELEVATED STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (SOME 2-3+ INCHES IN
DIAMETER). SHOULD A STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE WARM FRONT
AND BECOME SURFACE BASED, POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
INCREASE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
..THORNTON/LEITMAN.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33559489 34669507 34939509 35059507 35119504 35199499
35369423 35349361 35309330 35249311 34489294 33309316
33019361 32959404 32939469 33129480 33559489
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN
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