337
FNUS21 KWNS 261640
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE
INTRODUCED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIMITED NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT AND ONSET OF THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS A WARM FRONT EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD RESTRICT DURATION AND NORTHEAST EXTENT OF FIRE-EFFECTIVE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TX AND ADJACENT OK
PANHANDLES. THUS, CRITICAL AND ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR THIS
FORECAST UPDATE.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 30-40 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH, ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THE WINDS,
AIDED BY AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO, WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE RH
REDUCTIONS OF 10-20% TO PROMOTE AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A BROADER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NM, WITH NO ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0131 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EARLY-MORNING
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL PROMOTE STEADY
DEEPENING OF A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONSENSUS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT IS THAT WIDESPREAD 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE. A SWATH
OF 30-35 MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO FAR
WESTERN TX UNDER THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE SACRAMENTO AND SOUTHERN SANDIA MANZANO MOUNTAINS, AND WILL
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DRY AIR MASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS LARGELY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL PROMOTE FURTHER RH REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS, RH VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL INTO THE 5-10% RANGE
AGAIN TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE, MRMS QPE SUGGESTS
LITTLE RAINFALL IS REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN PRECEDING DAYS OF
DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING ERC VALUES (LARGELY NEAR THE
85TH PERCENTILE), RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL SUPPORT
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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