039
ACUS11 KWNS 261857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261856
OKZ000-KSZ000-262000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261856Z - 262000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OK.
DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING
CUMULUS FIELD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK. AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN EXTREMELY BUOYANT AIRMASS PROCEEDING IT.
THIS AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5
C/KM, YIELDING ~3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND CONTINUED WARMING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR WHETHER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE WARM FRONT, INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
AND SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD OVERCOME THIS LACK OF MORE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
EFFECTIVE WESTERLY BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KT (BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON) WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CONSIDERING SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW/CURVED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
..BARNES/GUYER.. 04/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37179766 37069796 36839812 36549816 36269819 35799857
35489831 35459800 35649773 35759745 35629715 35469697
35309684 35099662 34949622 35269585 35559603 36019638
36289649 36509660 36739662 36979662 37189680 37279724
37179766
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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