745
ACUS11 KWNS 261924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261923
KSZ000-MOZ000-262100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149...
VALID 261923Z - 262100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLE WITH TIME. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT MCS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ANCHORED BY AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL ON
ITS SOUTHERN END, WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED HAIL TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND 60-70 MPH WINDS. A WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO AND EVIDENCE OF A
REAR-INFLOW JET HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM KTWX, THOUGH LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY HAS LIKELY HAMPERED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS FAR.
SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY BE MUTED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DUE TO EXPANDING
ANVIL CIRRUS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING COMBINED WITH GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL AID IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION, WITH PRECONVECTIVE
MUCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING ABOVE 1000 J/KG FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHWEST MO, WHILE MLCAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO NEAR/ABOVE
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS. INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT-TERM, THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLE. WITH TIME, THERE MAY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OR PROPAGATION INTO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. SOME
BACKBUILDING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW, AIDED
BY A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SUCH A TREND COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING TORNADO THREAT, IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED REGARDING
THE NEED FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 04/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39589640 39709558 39489489 38629464 37889464 37519474
37249539 37239565 37329626 37429654 37669699 37829721
38169706 38819629 39589640
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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