744
ACUS11 KWNS 262201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262200
OKZ000-270000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 262200Z - 270000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IF THIS TAKES PLACE, A TORNADO THREAT WILL
BECOME LIKELY. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. ALONG THIS ZONE, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED
FIELD OF CUMULUS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, THE AIR IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE RAP
SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, A STRONG
WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED BY THE RAP TO BE
IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE STRONG NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING. IF THIS
WHERE TO OCCUR, THEN RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPECTED,
AND A TORNADO THREAT WOULD BECOME LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE LIKELY.
..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 04/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36989591 36849528 36529508 36279509 36009522 35899582
35909748 35899817 36069853 36329864 36719855 36999816
36989735 36989591
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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