393
ACUS11 KWNS 262231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262231
OKZ000-TXZ000-270000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 151...
VALID 262231Z - 270000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 151 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE EARLY STAGES OF SUPERCELL SPLITTING AND MATURATION IS
ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. WHILE
ISOLATED, THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE (2-3 INCH) HAIL, AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO, WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM KFDR SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF
SUPERCELL SPLITTING ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE WICHITA FALLS, TX
AREA, AND LATEST GOES IR 1-MINUTE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN STEADY CLOUD-TOP
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF HAIL
REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED (INCLUDING HAIL TO UP 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER) WITH THESE STORMS. THE OBSERVED SPLITTING TREND
CORROBORATES RECENT RAP FORECAST THAT DEPICT ELONGATED, NEARLY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE REGION THAT FEATURE AROUND 50 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT, REGIONAL BUOYANCY VALUES ARE VERY HIGH WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. CONSEQUENTLY, CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR BOTH SUPERCELLS IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL -
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL ANALOGS. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY FEATURES LITTLE EFFECTIVE SRH, SOME
TORNADO THREAT WILL MAY EMERGE WITH THE RIGHT SPLIT IN THE COMING
HOURS AS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION BECOMES MORE PROMINENT.
..MOORE.. 04/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33889736 33679747 33499772 33559807 33639842 33749875
33919892 33989896 34129898 34389865 34449834 34449747
34229735 33889736
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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