358
ACUS11 KWNS 262332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262332
MOZ000-ARZ000-270100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150...
VALID 262332Z - 270100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS A
SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN EDGE OF TORNADO
WATCH 150, NEW WATCH ISSUANCE OR A WATCH EXTENSION WILL BECOME
NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
OZARKS, WITH BACKED CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
OVER WESTERN MISSOURI, WHERE A SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING.
FROM THIS CLUSTER, A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE) EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS GRADIENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOUR HOURS, AND SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEW WEATHER WATCH
ISSUANCE OR A WATCH EXTENSION WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, FROM
NEAR COLUMBIA AND I-70 NORTHWARD, THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE NORTHERN
END OF THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES INTO THE AREA, THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 04/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38579409 37819413 36949334 36499258 36399134 36549093
36929069 37419080 38459144 39029206 39209274 39139350
38969388 38579409
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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