686
ACUS11 KWNS 270139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270138
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 270138Z - 270345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, AND WILL
LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN
THE COMING HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWS
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. DESPITE
PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EARLIER TODAY, WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS ADVECTING 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM LAPSE RATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
(THIS WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOP AND DDC RAOBS).
ADDITIONALLY, VWPS ACROSS OK ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE ONSET OF THE
NOCTURNAL JET, WHICH WILL BOLSTER NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AND PROMOTE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH THE LOWEST
1-2 KM. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING HOURS. THIS MAY MANIFEST AS AN
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KS AS IT
SPREADS EAST OR AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS. GIVEN
FORECAST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS,
ORGANIZED CONVECTION (INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS) IS LIKELY WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
2.5 INCHES).
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE
THE SURFACE, RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE WARM FRONT (CURRENTLY RESIDING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER) MAY
ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR. STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY MAY SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SURFACE BASED AND UTILIZING THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITED, SOME
TORNADO THREAT MAY MANIFEST LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS WHERE STP VALUES COULD INCREASE INTO THE 2-4 RANGE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
..MOORE/LEITMAN.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39979871 40289509 40309460 40169427 39859404 39439404
39039429 38729466 38529501 38459543 38359973 38470023
38780029 39190015 39569971 39819920 39979871
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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