650
ACUS11 KWNS 270149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270148
KSZ000-OKZ000-270415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 270148Z - 270415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEVERE STORMS WITH
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEATHER
WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
OVER THE TOP OF THIS AIRMASS, A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. IN
RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND MLCAPE WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR CELL INITIATION, RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAX IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. IN RESPONSE, ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE. IF CELLS CAN INITIATE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37739797 37769936 37429975 36939984 36159991 35079995
34699983 34579957 34519906 34509860 34579826 34679794
34899779 35419774 36759766 37399763 37739797
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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