836
ACUS11 KWNS 271657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271656
ILZ000-MOZ000-271900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271656Z - 271900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SURFACE-BASED, SEVERE-STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COLD SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE ST.
LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA INTO CENTRAL MO NEAR WARSAW. TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY, CLOUD BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN
MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DECREASING CAP STRENGTH.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INFLUX OF THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE ONGOING STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, CONFINED LARGELY ALONG THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF
THE ACTIVE COLD POOLS CASTS UNCERTAINTY OF THE PREFERRED STORM MODE
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY, IN AN OTHERWISE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, EVEN IN A MIXED-MODE CASE, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT ALL SEVERE-WEATHER HAZARDS,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38679274 39019152 39328990 38778948 38168963 37969245
37929327 38519334 38679274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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