449
ACUS11 KWNS 271845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271844
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...WESTERN
TN...AND NORTHEAST AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271844Z - 272045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY AGITATED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS EVOLVING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS AND SOUTHWARD. HERE, DIURNAL HEATING
OF A MOIST AIR MASS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8.5 C/KM PER SGF 18Z SOUNDING) IS
YIELDING STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AREAS OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONES,
AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND
AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND MODEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME LINGERING CAPPING AT THE
BASE OF THE EML SHOULD FAVOR A DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODE. GIVEN A
50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS (250-300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) -- STRONGEST WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT, SEVERAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEAST
MO, AND WESTERN KY, WHERE A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37029096 37529027 37778971 37908922 37988848 37938773
37668737 37288722 36918728 36618745 36218761 35748784
35398820 35178865 35078922 35048991 35039057 35129110
35479158 35979157 36519131 37029096
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page