413
ACUS11 KWNS 272024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272024
MSZ000-ARZ000-272300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272024Z - 272300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AR AND NORTHERN MS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THE SHV 18Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS (AROUND 3400 J/KG SBCAPE), AIDED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS).
WHILE THIS BUOYANCY AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (WITH
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS) WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES,
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE EML AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR
ASCENT CAST UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA, AND CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34129407 34839406 35679375 36159316 36329268 36419196
36259135 35919107 35139100 34949070 34948978 34888894
34608871 34178875 33788912 33468983 33189097 33049231
33059307 33199352 33449386 33829408 34129407
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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