874
ACUS11 KWNS 272336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272335
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272335Z - 280130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTION IF IT CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAVE BEEN
NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN MS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER, WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESIDUAL CAPPING (NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS) HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION SO FAR. NONETHELESS, RECENT ATTEMPTS HAVE SHOWN COLDER
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER VIL VALUES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
ATTEMPTS AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY BE
INCREASING.
IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED, IT WILL MATURE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
40 KNOTS, AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH (PER REGIONAL VWPS). THIS
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION APPEARS EMINENT.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 04/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33209038 33319088 33479104 33819115 34229107 34729082
34889050 34959032 35018760 34878726 34508702 34088706
33668724 33378768 33178845 33108949 33209038
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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