147
ACUS11 KWNS 280009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280009
KYZ000-INZ000-280145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 280009Z - 280145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
SOON.
DISCUSSION...A MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE OH RIVER IN
SOUTHERN IN/NORTH-CENTRAL KY HAVE LEFT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MLCAPE
TO THE NORTH, THOUGH MUCAPE AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD OCCUR WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF A TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE QLCS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS IL AS IT IMPINGES ON THIS MORE MARGINAL AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN AN INFLUX OF BETTER
UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH TIME AND A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT,
ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...
LAT...LON 40598751 40408581 39868541 38808466 38028459 37558488
37318580 37718654 38578712 39238748 40598751
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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