823
ACUS11 KWNS 280332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280331
KYZ000-TNZ000-280530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 280331Z - 280530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF DEEPENING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, A SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE IN THE COMING
HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR AND GOES IR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN WITH SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER
THE PAST 30 MINUTES. BASED ON OBSERVED CELL MOTIONS, PROXIMITY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND RECENT RAP UPPER-AIR ANALYSES, THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY STRENGTHENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN
THE 925-850 MB LEVELS. VEERING THROUGH THIS LAYER HAS DRASTICALLY
INCREASING OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS PER KOHX AND KHPX VWPS, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS DRIVEN BY
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY GENERALLY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT (WHERE
DEWPOINTS FALL OFF INTO THE 50S), A POCKET OF LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS EXISTS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
OUTLINES WHERE BUOYANCY IS LIKELY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS, MATURING
CONVECTION MAY FULLY REALIZE THE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD POSE A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. MODEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT AWAY FROM
THE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35178822 35398842 35678837 36328783 37318682 37508648
37578600 37548553 37468519 37248505 37038504 36768520
36378550 35878584 35478621 35238656 35078690 35008745
35028785 35178822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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