849
ACUS11 KWNS 281433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281433
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-281630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168...
VALID 281433Z - 281630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALL SEVERE-WEATHER
HAZARDS BECOMING POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 14:20Z, MOSAIC RADAR DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TX WITH THE STRONGEST STORM BEING A SUPERCELL OVER
MONTAGUE COUNTY, TX. THAT STORM IS LOCATED VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AR. THE SOUTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY, VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DEEPENING MOIST CONVECTION NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FT. WORTH METROPLEX. THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SURMOUNTED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, YIELDING MLCAPE OF 3500 J/KG. THE CAP WAS NOT
OVERLY STRONG, AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
ONGOING STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF STRONG,
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY
INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211
32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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