614
ACUS11 KWNS 281550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281550
ALZ000-MSZ000-281745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281550Z - 281745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THAT ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN
BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND GREENWOOD, MS TO NORTH
OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY IN ALABAMA. THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALED
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EAST INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RESULTING IN ESTIMATED MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 15Z.
THE 12Z CAMS OFFER VARIOUS SCENARIOS WITH RESPECT SPECIFIC DETAILS
ON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION TODAY. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IN SITU
STORM INTENSIFICATION/COALESCENCE INTO SMALLER, FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPLEXES, WHILE OTHERS INDICATE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE ARKLATEX
LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS, THE GENERAL NOTION IS FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG,
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN THE 12Z JAN/BMX SOUNDINGS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AND LIKELY TIED TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618
32398761 32748957 32979029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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