673
FNUS21 KWNS 281635
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ROBUST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTED AREA IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND WESTERN TX WERE NEEDED, WHERE WEST WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND SINGLE DIGIT RH OVERLAPPING DRY FUELS WILL ALIGN
THROUGH THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST LIMITED MOVEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MODIFIED AIR MASS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
FIRE-EFFECTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, WHERE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
..UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTH
OF DEEP SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO. RH TRENDS ARE ALSO LOWER,
CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE, WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS CLOSE TO 20%
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON, DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. FUELS
REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 90TH TO 97TH
PERCENTILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS INTO CENTRAL NY TO INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS IN VT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EXPANSIVE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/28/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1229 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY APPROACHES BAJA
CA, A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRAVERSE
THE HIGH PLAINS ENCOURAGING STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, ASSISTING IN THE BREAKDOWN OF UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO EMERGE IN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN
VT AMID A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG WINDS OVERLAP A REGION OF
RECEPTIVE FUELS. WIDESPREAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
COUPLED WITH RH FALLING TO 10-20 PERCENT ATOP A DRY FUELSCAPE WILL
INCREASE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ANY NEW AND/OR ONGOING WILDFIRES.
MORE INTENSE WIND BELTS OF 20-25 MPH ALIGNING WITH RH REDUCTIONS
CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TX.
..UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SURROUNDING A SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ONTARIO, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 10-15 MPH WITH LOCALIZED/TERRAIN ENHANCED 20 MPH
CORRIDORS LIKELY. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, POTENTIALLY LIMITING DEEPER
MIXING. HOWEVER, RH OF 25-35 PERCENT (LOCALLY NEAR 20 PERCENT) ARE
STILL EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALIGN AMID DRY FUELS TO PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN VT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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