095
ACUS11 KWNS 281808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281808
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169...
VALID 281808Z - 282015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT
SEVERE-WEATHER HAZARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE EXISTING WATCH,
AND AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
ELSEWHERE, INCREASING TORNADO RISK MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS, BOTH RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOVING,
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH HAIL UP TO 3.25" IN
DIAMETER BEING REPORTED. A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASED DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH KS ARE DRIVING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169, LIKELY
NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH.
THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED ATOP A BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST AR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
MOREOVER, THE SURFACE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
AR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE MID 60S TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SUPERCELL ONGOING IN SEARCY COUNTY, AR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO THE
WARMING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. AHEAD OF THAT STORM, RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS AR. THE NET RESULT
IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST AR THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREAL EXTENSION
OF TORNADO WATCH #170 MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO ACCOMMODATE THAT
THREAT.
..MEAD.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 35729623 36439634 37729434 38829232 38559086 37259014
36359064 35729097 35579157 35729623
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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