976
ACUS11 KWNS 281840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281840
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-281945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281840Z - 281945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A WW IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST LA, NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF MONROE. THE 18Z SHV INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN THE
1-2-KM LAYER AND IT'S LIKELY THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE THAT
FEATURE. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. AND, SOME RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED AS IT MOVES INTO MS.
THE WIND PROFILE OBSERVED IN THE SHV SOUNDING DATA IS CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER THAN THAT CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED BY THE CURRENT KDGX VWP.
AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER, A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY AS THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD (REF. 18Z SHV
SOUNDING) OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
LAT...LON 32399199 33259194 33519004 32998895 32298908 31968997
31919095 32079177 32399199
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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