486
FNUS22 KWNS 281943
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..SOUTHWEST
A 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AT THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED, LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE WITHIN BROADER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASING UPPER CLOUD
COVER WITHIN A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES WEST
OF THE NM CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, PRECONDITIONING AN ALREADY DRY
FUEL ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN AZ INTO
WESTERN NM OVERLAPPING RH OF 10% OR LESS DURING THE DAY, WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF MORE PROMINENT MOUNTAIN
RANGES IN SOUTHERN NM. FARTHER EAST, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN DEWPOINTS AND RH, LOWERING THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BASED ON
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
INCREASING WEST WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE STEADY WEST WINDS AND RESIDUAL DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE INFLUENCE WILL OVERLAP A DRY AND DROUGHT
STRESSED LANDSCAPE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN FL WHERE
WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH, RH OF 25-35% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS ALIGN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AL/GA BORDER AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO THE FL
PENINSULA WAS MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED AREA BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/28/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1231 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BOLSTER A CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH PRECEDING DAYS OF
FIRE-EFFECTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NM TO FAR EASTERN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY.
..SOUTHWEST
PERSISTENT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING LEE-SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AZ
INTO CENTRAL NM. WHILE WINDS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH OF LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT AMID DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS WHERE
DELAYED GULF MOISTURE RETURN AMID AN EXISTING DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MINIMUM RH REDUCTIONS OF 25-35 PERCENT (LOCALLY
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN
FL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL GA. FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE ALIGNS IN THE LOCATION/EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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