843
ACUS11 KWNS 282019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282018
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-282215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
VALID 282018Z - 282215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ALL-HAZARD, SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 170 FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. ANOTHER WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 21-22Z.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1950Z, MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATED A NORTH-SOUTH
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES,
MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 170 IN EASTERN
AR. THAT ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE-WEATHER HAZARDS
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE CONTINUING EAST INTO TORNADO WATCHES
173 AND 174. FARTHER WEST, A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS HAS RECENTLY
EVOLVED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK, WITH THAT ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED
ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONVECTIVE REGIMES, PERSISTENT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEPOSITED A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN AR. THE
AIR MASS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD-POOL BUBBLE IN FAR
WEST-CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHEAST OK IS CURRENTLY RECOVERING WITH
MLCAPE REBOUNDING TO 2500-3500 J/KG, PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
THE RECOVERING AIR MASS COUPLED WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
AROUND 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF AFOREMENTIONED,
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SUPERCELLS IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA BY
21-22Z. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
..MEAD.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34259589 35079589 35329497 35639375 35549314 35269250
35289133 34529119 33369125 32879140 32829293 32699387
32769452 33309499 34259589
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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