804
ACUS11 KWNS 282250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282250
ALZ000-MSZ000-290045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 173...
VALID 282250Z - 290045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 173 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM KDGX AND KGWX SHOWS
INTENSIFICATION OF A SUPERCELL (INCLUDING A NOTABLE THREE-BODY
SCATTER SPIKE) NORTH OF THE JACKSON, MS AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM IS
LIKELY ELEVATED BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (NOTED
IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS), A RECENT 21 UTC SOUNDING FROM JAN SAMPLED
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION, EVEN WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR
NEAR-STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE COLD POOL. THIS SOUNDING ALSO
SAMPLED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KNOTS,
WHICH IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS DEMONSTRATED
BY THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE SUPERCELL NORTH OF JACKSON, MS, THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
..MOORE.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 31298664 32198985 32369018 32699033 32999030 33259008
33318974 33168900 32458644 32188613 31788602 31578621
31378640 31298664
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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