258
ACUS11 KWNS 282345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282344
TXZ000-290145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282344Z - 290145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED IN TERRELL
COUNTY TX, JUST EAST OF SANDERSON. THIS CELL FORMED ALONG THE
SURFACE DRYLINE IN A VERY HOT/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, TRACKING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. LEFT-SPLITS FROM THIS CELL COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN
CROCKETT COUNTY AS WELL. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGH
CAPE, AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL OVER 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE, SO A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..HART/MOSIER.. 04/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30370191 30600122 30170043 29790035 29610064 29530113
29890192 30140208 30370191
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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