677
FNUS21 KWNS 291632
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
..SOUTHWEST
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH
(APPROACHING 20 MPH LOCALLY) AND RH RANGING FROM 5-15%, ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AZ INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS
MADE INTO FAR WEST TX TO INCLUDE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTED TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN STALLING THE
SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM AND MUCH
OF TX. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
REGION OF SOUTHERN GA. CLEARING SKIES WILL AID IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MANIFESTING IN WEST WIND OF AROUND 10
MPH. RH REDUCTIONS OF 25-35% ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING,
SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID RECEPTIVE AND
DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS. RAINFALL FROM DECAYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING HAS MODERATED FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GA, REDUCING OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE
BEEN CONTRACTED ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A TEMPORARY LULL IN FIRE DANGER.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/29/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0104 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BOLSTER A CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH PRECEDING DAYS OF
FIRE-EFFECTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NM TO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO A
SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
RH RECOVERIES WEST OF THE NM CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, PRECONDITIONING
AN ALREADY DRY FUEL ENVIRONMENT. A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF AN EMBEDDED, LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WITHIN BROADER
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY, PROMOTING CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AMID DRY
FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AZ INTO CENTRAL NM/WEST TX AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE MAINLY IN THE LEEWARD
SLOPES OF THE MORE PROMINENT MOUNTAIN RANGES IN SOUTHERN NM WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AMID 10 PERCENT RH.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE INFLUENCE WILL
OVERLAP A DRY AND DROUGHT STRESSED LANDSCAPE. WEST WINDS OF AROUND
10 MPH AND RH OF 25-35 PERCENT (LOCALLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) ARE
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO FAR
WESTERN GA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE
ELEVATED RISK AREA. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN ANTICIPATED, FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ADJUSTED
IN THE 17Z OUTLOOK.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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