201
ACUS02 KWNS 300456
SWODY2
SPC AC 300454
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS, PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE CONCERNING THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIVE AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE SPLIT WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC STILL APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING BUILDING RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS ALONG AN AXIS
WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE INTO NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND ON A
LARGER-SCALE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES. WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGING, A MODEST MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING EMBEDDED LOW ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIG TO THE
WEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, BROAD UPPER
RIDGING MAY GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.
DOWNSTREAM, A CONFLUENT REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED AT MID-LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING DIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOWER HEIGHTS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST VICINITY.
A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION REACHING THE TEXAS BIG BEND VICINITY BY
12Z FRIDAY PROBABLY WILL UNDERGO SHEARING AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CONFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. HOWEVER, AS A
REINFORCING COOL SURGE NOSES SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, ACROSS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE, ACROSS MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
..MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, MAY SUPPORT A SWATH OF MOSTLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL TO
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND WIND, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY
TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, MAY TEND TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL, DEPENDENT UPON BOTH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA PARISHES BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING, AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY.
..KERR.. 04/30/2026
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