828
ACUS11 KWNS 301702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301702
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301702Z - 301900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL
POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE GREATER BUOYANCY (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE PER
LATEST MESOANALYSIS) EXISTS OWING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S, WITH ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE PROFILES
(500 J/KG MUCAPE) BASED AROUND 850 MB NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EVIDENT IN THE
HDC VWP ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 50+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THAT
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS DESPITE ONLY MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
(MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM PER THE 12Z LIX OBSERVED
SOUNDING AND LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS). ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS, BUT GENERALLY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LARGELY TEMPER WIND GUST SEVERITY.
MODEST 0-3 KM CAPE (50-75 J/KG PER REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS) IN
THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
LANDSPOUT/WATERSPOUT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY OWING TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 04/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29429214 29579283 29679319 29699348 29639377 29849390
30189407 30619404 30949391 31049362 30989282 30809174
30679082 30528994 30258906 30018860 29668859 29248873
28958909 28868950 28989090 29179131 29429214
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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