863
ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS STORM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL LIKELY CROSS THE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING.
MID EVENING RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE LAREDO, TEXAS VICINITY
HAVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 65 KNOTS WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDING, THE TEMPERATURE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL IN THE LOWEST 1000
METERS, WITH CAPE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THAT
ANY SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT THE
AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
..BROYLES.. 05/01/2026
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