173
ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
..FL VICINITY
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY VICINITY WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT 850-500 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ROBUST ACROSS SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
FL/GA LINE AND OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT CAMS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH REGARD TO STORM
MODE AND INTENSITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH THE 00Z HRRR BEING A
NOTABLE OUTLIER SHOWING A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED BOWING MCS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. MOST OF THE REST OF THE
CAMS GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND AN ORGANIZED LINEAR
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAIN. DOWNSTREAM FROM EARLY-PERIOD
CONVECTION, UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR MLCAPE MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING
CONVECTION BY THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AMID
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE. IF ANY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP,
ISOLATED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO RISK IS LESS CERTAIN
GIVEN A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME, QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM
MODE, AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.
..LEITMAN.. 05/01/2026
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